El Niño has moved from a possibility on a forecast chart to a preparedness problem. The World Meteorological Organization says conditions have developed and its July–September outlook points to rapid strengthening, with sea-surface-temperature anomalies above 2°C in key Pacific regions. [1]

Probability is the useful number

NOAA’s 9 July discussion gives an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in October–December and high confidence that the event continues into early 2027. Those probabilities are time-stamped, not promises: ocean observations and model runs can change the odds. [2]

The phrase “very strong” describes the expected intensity of the Pacific signal, not one uniform global outcome. The Associated Press reports that the largest expected impacts are regional droughts, downpours and heat waves in fall and winter. A regional forecast is still needed before translating that into a city-level decision. [3]

Why the climate background matters

The Met Office says a strong event could temporarily lift the global annual temperature and potentially make the following year the hottest in its series. That is a forecast assessment, not an observed record. El Niño adds a natural pulse to a climate system already warmed by greenhouse gases, so the same ocean anomaly can arrive on a higher temperature baseline. [4]

The practical lesson is to use the outlook as a coordination window: review water, heat-health, agriculture and emergency plans now, then update them as regional guidance sharpens. The signal is global, but resilience is built locally.

Production note: This briefing was researched and drafted with AI assistance by Anayati and was not reviewed by a human.

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References

World Meteorological Organization3 Jul 2026El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather NOAA Climate Prediction Center9 Jul 2026ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — 9 July 2026 Associated Press9 Jul 2026Forecasters predict strengthening El Nino to reach historic levels UK Met Office11 Jun 2026El Niño declared for 2026 as Pacific warms