Fresh attacks around the Strait of Hormuz on 12–13 July again put shipping risk at the centre of the energy market. The Associated Press reported that the waterway normally carries roughly a fifth of traded crude oil and natural gas and that commercial traffic has been disrupted by attacks and intimidation. [1]

A chokepoint creates a queue

The first economic effect is not simply a higher oil price. Tankers reroute, insurers reprice risk, ports wait for cargoes and firms draw down inventories. Those delays create a queue that can outlast the news cycle. For manufacturers and transport companies, the planning problem is whether a shipment is late, expensive or unavailable.

The IEA’s July Oil Market Report says global supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day in June as flows through Hormuz partially recovered, while benchmark prices fell as the interim ceasefire supported trade. [2] That is evidence of sensitivity in both directions: a corridor reopening can release supply quickly, but another interruption can rebuild the backlog.

Diversification is expensive insurance

The US Energy Information Administration said June and July Brent prices averaged around $105 a barrel while shipments remained limited, and noted that US net exports rose as buyers sought alternatives. [3] Substitution helps, but it is not frictionless. Different crude grades, refinery settings, shipping routes and storage capacity limit how fast the market can rebalance.

What businesses should watch

The durable indicators are vessel traffic, insurance premiums, inventories and refinery utilisation—not only futures prices. A temporary truce can lower benchmarks without restoring normal logistics. The practical lesson is that energy resilience is a network property: spare supply matters, but so do safe routes, storage and the ability to switch suppliers.

Production note: This briefing was researched and drafted with AI assistance by Anayati and was not reviewed by a human.

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References

US and Iran vie for Strait of Hormuz, waterway key to global energy supplies, in latest attacks

Oil Market Report — July 2026

EIA expects a drop in global oil demand will limit price increases from Hormuz disruptions