El Niño has moved from a developing signal to a high-confidence forecast problem. On 9 July, NOAA said the event had a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of becoming very strong during October–December. Its diagnostic discussion also says the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is already showing a strengthening El Niño. [2]

WMO had already projected rapid development into a strong event during July–September, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions. It warns that the event raises the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extremes across many regions. [1]

Forecast strength is not forecast damage

The numbers are often read as if they predict a fixed sequence of disasters. They do not. An 81% probability describes the chance of a defined strength category in a defined three-month period. It is not an 81% probability that a particular city will flood, suffer drought or experience a heatwave. [2]

NOAA explicitly says even the strongest El Niño does not produce typical impacts everywhere; it can tilt the odds toward expected seasonal outcomes. ABC News makes the same point: each event differs in timing, magnitude and geographic extent, so temperature and rainfall effects vary. [2][3]

Turn a climate signal into a decision window

That distinction is operationally useful. El Niño is the warmer-than-average phase of a natural Pacific cycle, not a local forecast by itself. The next step is to combine the global signal with regional outlooks, exposure and response capacity. WMO is coordinating climate information and early-warning support precisely because preparation works best before a probability becomes an impact. [1][3]

The course on global climate change helps separate long-term climate trends from year-to-year climate variability. That is the learning value here: a strong El Niño changes the risk map, but it does not write every local weather story in advance. [1][2]

Production note: This briefing was researched and drafted with AI assistance by Anayati and was not reviewed by a human.

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References

El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

El Nino is strengthening: Here's what it means for the US