U.S. existing-home sales fell 2.4% in June from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. At the same time, the median existing-home price rose 1.8% from a year earlier to $440,600, a record in the National Association of Realtors series. [1][2][3]

A median is a signal, not a map

A median sale price is the midpoint of completed transactions: half sold for more and half for less. It is useful, but it is not a price index for every property or a measure of every household’s monthly payment. A record median can reflect both higher prices and a different mix of homes that actually sold. [1]

That is why the headline needs at least four signals. Sales measure turnover. Prices describe completed deals. Inventory shows how much choice is available. Mortgage rates shape the payment that turns a listed home into an affordable—or unaffordable—purchase.

The four signals point in different directions

June’s inventory was 1.56 million homes, equal to a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace. [1][3] That is more context than the record price alone: a buyer can face fewer completed sales, more time to choose, and still confront a high financing cost. AP reported that long-term borrowing costs and local differences continue to shape what buyers can actually pay. [3]

The NAR’s affordability index was 102.3 in June, up from 95.5 a year earlier, while the report showed year-over-year improvement in all four regions. [1] That does not cancel the difficulty of buying; it shows why affordability should be read as a relationship among income, payments and prices rather than as a synonym for the headline sale price.

What to watch instead of one record

The practical question is whether transactions can recover without a renewed run-up in payments. Watch inventory, the mortgage rate available to a specific borrower, the share of first-time buyers, and local price and wage trends. National and regional trends can move in different directions. [1][3]

For readers, the durable lesson is to separate the house’s sticker price from the household’s cash flow. A record median matters, but it is only one part of the affordability calculation. [1]

Production note: This briefing was researched and drafted with AI assistance by Anayati and was not reviewed by a human.

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References

NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.4% Decrease in June

US existing home sales unexpectedly fall in June

US home prices reach unprecedented territory as sales slow